Abstract

The tenuous position of Muslim minorities in Muslim majority countries is often overlooked because of presumed normalcy. This paper analyzes the dynamics of Muslim minorities along four macro factors: First, structural determinants, such as geography, spatial concentration, and the size of the minority, which constitute the material resource repertoire of the minority. Second, geopolitics and inherited colonial policies, which represent the boundaries of possible future development within the region. Third, minority accumulated grievances, including economic deprivation and political disfranchisement, which function as the fuel that justifies counter-majority collective action. Forth, cultural distinctiveness as it constructs the foreignness of the minority. The paper also discusses the nature of the ideological framework within which the minority articulates its demands, which determines its national leadership potential in the global context. Along this analytical map, the paper charts the expected future outcomes of three main Muslim minorities: the Kurds of Iraq, the Darfurians of Sudan, the, and the Amazigh of Algeria. Using the Boolean logic of comparison, the paper argues that the case of the Iraqi Kurds is the most conducive to a new political arrangement as all of the four conditions are strongly present. The case of Darfur is volatile as it takes contradictory positions on the stated dimensions, and where structural conduciveness is high and tribal conflict heightens grievances on all sides. The case of the Amazigh is muted although it has the potential of surprising escalation with shifts in geopolitics or structural conduciveness.